Escalation of Israeli-Palestinian conflict divides Gulf Arab stateshttps://amwaj.media/media-monitor/escalation-of-israeli-palestinian-conflict-divides-gulf-arab-states-duplicate
The story: The Hamas movement’s Oct. 7 surprise attack on Israel has sparked diverse reactions from Gulf Arab states. Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which normalized relations with Israel under the 2020 Abraham Accords, have adopted a cautious tone. Kuwait, Oman, and Qatar have blamed the violence on Israeli policies. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has reacted to the bloodshed by reaching out to the Palestinian Authority as well as regional and international stakeholders. This comes as some view the Palestinian offensive as partly a response to the Israeli-Saudi effort to normalize relations.
The coverage: In separate phone calls with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, the King of Jordan and Egypt’s president, Saudi Arabia’s crown prince reportedly expressed solidarity with Palestinians and a desire to contain the violence.
- According to the Saudi readout, Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud (MbS) told
Abbas that “the Kingdom is making every possible effort in
communicating with all international and regional parties to stop the
ongoing escalation and prevent its expansion in the region.”
- MbS and Abdel Fattah El-Sisi of Egypt also reportedly “agreed on the need to intensify international and regional efforts to stop the escalation in Gaza and its surroundings and prevent its expansion in the region.” A Saudi readout added that the crown prince reaffirmed that “the Kingdom stands by the Palestinian people to achieve their legitimate rights, realize their hopes and aspirations, and achieve a just and lasting peace.”
In the hours after the Oct. 7 blitz on Israeli communities near Gaza, the Saudi Press Agency (SPA) quoted the Saudi foreign ministry as calling for “an immediate de-escalation” by Israelis and Palestinians.
- Riyadh noted
that it previously warned of the outcomes of “the continued occupation
and depriving Palestinians of their legitimate rights and the repeated
systematic provocations against their sanctities.”
- SPA on Oct. 7 reported that the Saudi foreign minister discussed with his American, Egyptian, Jordanian, Qatari and EU counterparts the need for “joint action to prevent escalation.”
Later in the same day, the Bahraini and Emirati foreign ministries issued similar but more conservatively-worded statements.
- Abu Dhabi on Oct. 7 expressed concern over the “escalation of violence between Israelis and Palestinians” and extended its condolences to “all the victims.”
- Manama warned that “the continuation of fighting” between “the Palestinian factions and the Israeli forces in Gaza” will have “negative ramifications on the security and stability of the entire region.”
Kuwait, Oman, and Qatar adopted a more fiery tone, asserting their support for the establishment of “an independent [Palestinian] state per the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital.”
- The Qatari foreign ministry on Oct. 7 “held
Israel solely responsible” for the escalation and urged the
international community “to compel Israel to cease its blatant
violations.”
- Kuwait on Oct. 7 said
the violence is the “result of the [Israeli] occupation’s blatant
violations and attacks” on Palestinians. The sheikhdom further asserted
its “unwavering and principled” solidarity with the Palestinian people.
- Oman on Oct. 7 charged that the bloodshed was ultimately “the result of the ongoing illegitimate Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories and Israeli attacks on Palestinian towns and villages.”
Notably, a statement issued by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) reflected the tone adopted by Kuwait, Oman, and Qatar.
- The GCC held “the Israeli occupation forces responsible” for the violence, saying that it was the result of “continuous and flagrant Israeli attacks” on Palestinians.
In the aftermath of the Oct. 7 attack, the hashtag #AlAqsa_Flood in Arabic—the name of the Palestinian offensive—has been shared by millions of users on Twitter/X. Users from Gulf Arab states have also been debating the possible aims and repercussions of developments.
- Saudi writer Meshal Al-Khaledi considered the Hamas operation to be an attempt to “ruin the normalization negotiations” between Riyadh and Tel Aviv.
- Saudi columnist Abdullah Al-Jedai argued
that the Israeli-Saudi normalization effort, pushed by the Joe Biden
administration, has in fact been obstructed by Israeli “reservations
about the Saudi demands for a nuclear reactor…and [Israel’s] abstaining
from presenting tangible concessions to the Palestinians.”
- Dubai Deputy Chief of Police and General Security, Dhahi Khalfan, on Oct. 8 stated
that “Israel demands no one attack it and that is [its] right, while it
does not recognize the [same] right for the Palestinians.”
- Kuwaiti political analyst Fahd Al-Shelaimi wrote that “in spite of the military and popular tactical success Hamas has scored, the end result will not be to the advantage of the Palestinians.” He added that Israel would carry out “hysterical strikes” on Gaza.
The context/analysis: The relatively neutral stances adopted by Bahrain and the UAE likely reflect considerations associated with their normalization of relations with Israel. As for Saudi Arabia, the Hamas offensive and the ensuing conflict has put Riyadh in a difficult position. The Kingdom has been pursuing a normalization deal with Israel, pushed by the Joe Biden administration. But being perceived as embracing Tel Aviv, particularly at this time, would be politically damaging for MbS.
- In exchange for establishing formal ties with Israel, Saudi Arabia has reportedly demanded
a NATO-like mutual defense agreement with the US, assistance with
building a nuclear program on Saudi soil, and sophisticated American
weapons. Additionally, Riyadh has pushed for “concessions” related to
the Palestinian cause.
- In parallel, Riyadh has recently moved to rekindle ties with Palestinian groups—including Hamas. Earlier this year, senior officials from the Gaza-based movement visited Saudi Arabia for the first time since 2015.
Officials close to Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu have denied receiving any Saudi conditions for normalization with the Kingdom.
- However, some Israeli security officials have voiced opposition to any US-backed Saudi nuclear program that could emerge from a normalization deal.
- Arab observers have noted that normalization between Riyadh and Tel Aviv would be a win for President Biden ahead of the 2024 US presidential elections.
As for Kuwait, Oman and Qatar, their current criticism of Israel reflects their rejection of normalization in the absence of a resolution to the Palestinian question.
- While rejecting formal ties with Tel Aviv, Doha and Muscat have engaged in varying degrees of communication with Israel though mostly in a mediation capacity.
The future: Bahrain and the UAE will likely continue to try and distance themselves from the violence in Gaza. On the other hand, Gulf Arab states such as Kuwait, Oman and Qatar can be expected to continue voicing criticism of Israel—and this may impact the tone of the GCC. As for Saudi Arabia, the fighting in Gaza is both a challenge and an opportunity.
- On the one hand, the Kingdom’s normalization effort with Israel is
likely to be put on hold for the time being. This will particularly be
the case if the fighting in Gaza opens new fronts.
- However, if the violence is contained in the coming weeks, it may provide Saudi Arabia with an opportunity to more strongly demand US concessions in exchange for normalization with Israel. This could be endorsed by Netanyahu, who retains strong incentives to highlight that Israel can make peace with Arab states without significant concessions to the Palestinians.